Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 4 home wins, 4 draws and 2 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Mallorca beat Espanyol with a 24.8% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on February 28 (before the first match) against those on March 3 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Zaragoza | Relegation | 54.5% | 39.3% | −15.1 |
| Sevilla | Europa League | 19.8% | 29.8% | +10.0 |
| Villarreal | Champions League | 79.8% | 89.0% | +9.3 |
| Mallorca | Europa League | 8.3% | 16.4% | +8.0 |
| Villarreal | Europa League | 17.8% | 9.9% | −7.9 |
| Sporting Gijón | Relegation | 23.9% | 31.1% | +7.2 |
| Espanyol | Champions League | 13.6% | 7.4% | −6.2 |
| Athletic Club | Europa League | 47.9% | 43.0% | −4.9 |
| Málaga | Relegation | 53.9% | 58.7% | +4.8 |
| Almería | Relegation | 68.3% | 72.9% | +4.7 |
