Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 2 home wins, 5 draws and 3 away wins. 2 wins went against the pre-match probabilities: Villarreal beat Athletic Club with a 22.1% chance and Mallorca beat Rayo Vallecano with a 23.4% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on January 5 (before the first match) against those on January 12 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | Champion | 41.5% | 54.7% | +13.3 |
| Espanyol | Relegation | 63.1% | 51.2% | −11.9 |
| Racing Santander | Relegation | 18.5% | 27.8% | +9.3 |
| Villarreal | Relegation | 21.4% | 13.4% | −8.0 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 14.5% | 22.2% | +7.7 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 61.0% | 53.7% | −7.2 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 34.8% | 27.8% | −6.9 |
| Atlético Madrid | Relegation | 14.2% | 7.9% | −6.3 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 88.9% | 95.0% | +6.1 |
| Mallorca | Europa League | 8.8% | 14.3% | +5.4 |
