Pre-match statistical estimates, for information only. Not advice and not to be used for betting.
10 matches played out of 10: 7 home wins, no draws and 3 away wins. One win went against the pre-match probabilities: Athletic Club beat Barcelona with a 17.9% chance.
What the matchday changed
Chances on November 18 (before the first match) against those on November 25 (after the last one). Only changes of 3 percentage points or more; a postponed match from another matchday played in between also counts.
| Team | Objective | Before | After | Change (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | Relegation | 53.1% | 38.4% | −14.7 |
| Rayo Vallecano | Relegation | 60.2% | 74.5% | +14.4 |
| Real Madrid | Champions League | 37.3% | 49.6% | +12.3 |
| Valencia | Champions League | 52.3% | 40.6% | −11.6 |
| Barcelona | Champions League | 64.7% | 53.5% | −11.2 |
| Osasuna | Relegation | 28.2% | 39.1% | +10.9 |
| Athletic Club | Champions League | 17.3% | 28.0% | +10.7 |
| Tenerife | Relegation | 51.0% | 40.6% | −10.4 |
| Deportivo La Coruña | Champions League | 76.6% | 66.5% | −10.1 |
| Celta Vigo | Champions League | 27.5% | 36.6% | +9.1 |
